As I stood under the shower this morning, appreciating the privileges of being born in a developed nation, I couldn't help but notice the 17 gallons of clean water flowing down the drain. It made me reflect on the 2 billion people around the world who lack access to clean water and the 6.8 billion who don't have enough drinking water each day. I couldn't escape the feeling of gluttony and guilt, prompting me to question how such a grotesque disparity could be rectified in a world abundant with resources.
Intrigued, I embarked on a research journey to understand why this injustice persists and explore potential solutions to address the inequality in global resource distribution.
My first revelation was the finite nature of our planet. Earth possesses 12.2 billion hectares of productive land and water. If we were to divide this by the 8 billion inhabitants, each person should have access to 1.52 hectares. However, this is far from the reality we observe today. For instance, individuals fortunate enough to be born in the United States utilize an average of 8.5 hectares per person, while the poorest individuals on Earth make do with a mere 0.8 hectares. In Italy, the average is only 3.8 hectares, significantly less than what Americans consume. I'm not passing judgment on who uses what, but it raises concerns about the implications as the rest of the world develops and increases its hectare usage.
Can the planet endure such a trajectory? Will humanity survive?
It appears that a great struggle will ensue as those below the average hectare usage seek to acquire more hectares as they progress. Where will these additional hectares come from? My belief is that they will be taken from the gluttonous through practices like exploiting cheap wages and inflating prices. Let's consider a recent example: over the past 50 years, wages have become interchangeable globally. Manufacturers can now opt for low-wage labor in Vietnam instead of high-wage labor in Kansas, leading to the erosion of America's manufacturing sector. This has resulted in dwindling opportunities in American cities and states, with young men missing from the work force and, even worse, grappling with addiction to opioids like fentanyl.
This marks the initial stages of a leveling process in terms of hectare usage worldwide. As people in developing nations strive for better standards of living, they will inevitably require cars, desks, computers, and other amenities we often take for granted. Consequently, I predict that these masses from the third world will demand an ever-increasing amount of hectares. Competition for these scarce hectares will drive up prices, prompting a redistribution from the excessive consumers to the deprived ones.
Unless substantial changes occur, the developed world can anticipate a loss of access to the hectares they have grown accustomed to, and this transition will undoubtedly be challenging.
There are two other possible scenarios: either significantly reducing the global population through war or disease, or placing our hopes in the potential salvation brought about by robotics and AI, or both!